TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonality in outliers of daily stock returns
T2 - A tail that wags the dog?
AU - Galai, Dan
AU - Kedar-Levy, Haim
AU - Schreiber, Ben Z.
PY - 2008/12
Y1 - 2008/12
N2 - We document significant intra-year seasonality in outliers of S&P500 daily rates of return. Controlling for outliers in dummy regressions reveals that both the January and Monday effects turn from insignificant to highly significant. Mean daily return on January doubles and becomes significantly higher than all other months of the year, and Monday's mean return turns significantly positive and higher than other days of the week. The recently documented Halloween effect turns significant only after controlling for outliers as June, August, and September turn out to be months with remarkably low rates of returns. Being random, outliers cannot serve as instrumental variables for designing trading rules, yet, their impact on options pricing through the increase in volatility, may be applied for profitable options strategies.
AB - We document significant intra-year seasonality in outliers of S&P500 daily rates of return. Controlling for outliers in dummy regressions reveals that both the January and Monday effects turn from insignificant to highly significant. Mean daily return on January doubles and becomes significantly higher than all other months of the year, and Monday's mean return turns significantly positive and higher than other days of the week. The recently documented Halloween effect turns significant only after controlling for outliers as June, August, and September turn out to be months with remarkably low rates of returns. Being random, outliers cannot serve as instrumental variables for designing trading rules, yet, their impact on options pricing through the increase in volatility, may be applied for profitable options strategies.
KW - Halloween effect
KW - January effect
KW - Month-of-the-Year
KW - Outliers
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=54849437737&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.irfa.2007.12.001
DO - 10.1016/j.irfa.2007.12.001
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AN - SCOPUS:54849437737
SN - 1057-5219
VL - 17
SP - 784
EP - 792
JO - International Review of Financial Analysis
JF - International Review of Financial Analysis
IS - 5
ER -