Some fundamental philosophical, psychological and intellectual assumptions of futures studies

Futures studies have three operational bases, each supported by a number of assumptions or premises. The first basis is that something ought to be known about the future. This is based on two assumptions: (1) the future should be known, as a goal or value in itself; (2) knowledge about the future is useful for achieving other values and goals. The second basis is that something can be known about the future. It is based on four assumptions: (1) the past can serve as a basis for predicting the future because society has some stability or ultra-stability; (2) special senses permit predictions that are independent of the past; (3) the human mind is capable, directly or indirectly, of recognizing stability or ultra-stability and basing predictions on it; (4) knowledge-distorting effects of intense values, emotions and interests can be overcome. The third basis is that 'futures studies' as a specific endeavour are a preferable frame for producing desirable knowledge about the future. It is supported by three assumptions: (1) futures studies have shared characteristics; (2) the shared features of futures studies are unique; (3) the unique features of 'futures studies' are best developed within a distinct frame. Altogether, futures studies seem to be based on nine assumptions which are mixed philosophical, psychological and intellectual. Critical examination of these nine premises seems to indicate that most of them can be supported by some parts of futures studies. These subdivisions can, therefore, constitute the elements of an academic-professional discipline or sub-discipline of 'futures studies'.