Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments

Ran Nathan*, Nir Horvitz, Yanping He, Anna Kuparinen, Frank M. Schurr, Gabriel G. Katul

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

161 Scopus citations

Abstract

Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)211-219
Number of pages9
JournalEcology Letters
Volume14
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2011

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Demography
  • Dispersal
  • Fat-tailed dispersal kernels
  • Forecasting
  • Forests
  • Invasion by extremes
  • Long-distance dispersal
  • Mechanistic models
  • Plant migration
  • Population spread
  • Range expansion
  • Survival
  • Wind dispersal

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