Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking: The Case of the Middle East Peace Process

This article examines the problem of uncertainty and its effects upon the decision making processes of top‐level politicians. I use the Middle East Peace Process as a case to explore the handling of uncertainty in statecraft, and present a concept of statecraft as prudent risk taking, that is, carefully contemplated decisions taken with full awareness of the dangers involved as well as opportunities. I conclude by offering a set of professional approaches that may be used to improve statecraft as prudent risk taking.