Stochastic convective rain-field simulation using a high-resolution synoptically conditioned weather generator (HiReS-WG)

Nadav Peleg*, Efrat Morin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

37 Scopus citations

Abstract

A new stochastic high-resolution synoptically conditioned weather generator (HiReS-WG) appropriate for climate regimes with a substantial proportion of convective rainfall is presented. The simulated rain fields are of high spatial (0.5 × 0.5 km2) and temporal (5 min) resolution and can be used for most hydrological applications. The WG is composed of four modules: the synoptic generator, the motion vector generator, the convective rain cell generator, and the low-intensity rainfall generator. The HiReS-WG was applied to a study region on the northwestern Israeli coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, for which 12 year weather radar and synoptic data were extensively analyzed to derive probability distributions of convective rain cells and other rainfall properties for different synoptic classifications; these distributions were used as input to the HiReS-WG. Simulated rainfall data for 300 years were evaluated for annual rain depth, season timing, wet-/dry-period durations, rain-intensity distributions, and spatial correlations. In general, the WG well represented the above properties compared to radar and rain-gauge observations from the studied region, with one limitation - an inability to reproduce the most extreme cases. The HiReS-WG is a good tool to study catchments' hydrological responses to variations in rainfall, especially small-size to medium-size catchments, and it can also be linked to climate models to force the prevailing synoptic conditions. Key Points New high-resolution weather generator for rainfall simulations is presented Stochastic rain fields with multiple convective rain cells are produced Rain data can be used for hydrological modeling and downscaling

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)2124-2139
Number of pages16
JournalWater Resources Research
Volume50
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2014

Keywords

  • Eastern Mediterranean
  • convective rainfall
  • high-resolution rain data
  • hydrological application
  • stochastic downscaling
  • weather generator

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