Subseasonal predictability and the stratosphere

Amy H. Butler; Andrew Charlton-Perez; Daniela I.V. Domeisen; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Edwin P. Gerber; Peter Hitchcock; Alexey Yu Karpechko; Amanda C. Maycock; Seok Woo Son; Chelsea Thompson

doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00006-3

Subseasonal predictability and the stratosphere

Amy H. Butler
, Andrew Charlton-Perez
, Daniela I.V. Domeisen
, Chaim I. Garfinkel
, Edwin P. Gerber
, Peter Hitchcock
, Alexey Yu Karpechko
, Amanda C. Maycock
, Seok Woo Son
, Chelsea Thompson

Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

Abstract

In this chapter, we provide an overview of dynamical coupling processes between the stratosphere and the troposphere in the tropics and the extratropics. In particular, we review recent research that evaluates the role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. We describe biases in the S2S forecast systems in capturing these processes and the implications of these biases for the predictive skill of surface climate patterns. We also consider windows of opportunity for higher forecast skill during periods of stratospheric extremes. Finally, we describe opportunities for future progress to improve stratosphere-troposphere coupling processes in S2S forecast systems and for using stratospheric information to improve predictive skill.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Subtitle of host publication	The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting
Publisher	Elsevier
Pages	355-397
Number of pages	43
ISBN (Electronic)	9780443315381
ISBN (Print)	9780443315398
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00006-3
State	Published - 1 Jan 2025

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2026 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

Keywords

Stratosphere
atmospheric dynamics
polar vortex
quasibiennial oscillation
subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
teleconnections

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10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00006-3

Cite this

Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Gerber, E. P., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Maycock, A. C., Son, S. W., & Thompson, C. (2025). Subseasonal predictability and the stratosphere. In Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting (pp. 355-397). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00006-3

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AU - Butler, Amy H.

AU - Charlton-Perez, Andrew

AU - Domeisen, Daniela I.V.

AU - Garfinkel, Chaim I.

AU - Gerber, Edwin P.

AU - Hitchcock, Peter

AU - Karpechko, Alexey Yu

AU - Maycock, Amanda C.

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AU - Thompson, Chelsea

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AB - In this chapter, we provide an overview of dynamical coupling processes between the stratosphere and the troposphere in the tropics and the extratropics. In particular, we review recent research that evaluates the role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. We describe biases in the S2S forecast systems in capturing these processes and the implications of these biases for the predictive skill of surface climate patterns. We also consider windows of opportunity for higher forecast skill during periods of stratospheric extremes. Finally, we describe opportunities for future progress to improve stratosphere-troposphere coupling processes in S2S forecast systems and for using stratospheric information to improve predictive skill.

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KW - atmospheric dynamics

KW - polar vortex

KW - quasibiennial oscillation

KW - subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

KW - teleconnections

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PB - Elsevier

ER -

Subseasonal predictability and the stratosphere

Abstract

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Keywords

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