Abstract
Market efficiency is often evaluated through the ability of fundamental analysis or technical trading rules to exploit predictable patterns in asset prices. The evidence following decades of empirical research is mixed. This paper reexamines the evidence using a novel database from the TV show “Talking Numbers.” We assess the performance of 1,599 investment recommendations, where each recommendation features a fundamental and a technical forecast. We show that technicians are able to predict individual stock returns to economically significant degrees up to a one-year horizon. Beyond that, the null hypothesis of market efficiency is not rejected for market-wide indices, equity sectors, bonds, or commodities.
Original language | American English |
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Pages (from-to) | 100-114 |
Number of pages | 15 |
Journal | Journal of Banking and Finance |
Volume | 92 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Jul 2018 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2018 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords
- Fundamental analysis
- Market anomalies
- Market efficiency
- Technical rules