Talking Numbers: Technical versus fundamental investment recommendations

Doron Avramov, Guy Kaplanski*, Haim Levy

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Market efficiency is often evaluated through the ability of fundamental analysis or technical trading rules to exploit predictable patterns in asset prices. The evidence following decades of empirical research is mixed. This paper reexamines the evidence using a novel database from the TV show “Talking Numbers.” We assess the performance of 1,599 investment recommendations, where each recommendation features a fundamental and a technical forecast. We show that technicians are able to predict individual stock returns to economically significant degrees up to a one-year horizon. Beyond that, the null hypothesis of market efficiency is not rejected for market-wide indices, equity sectors, bonds, or commodities.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)100-114
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Banking and Finance
Volume92
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2018

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

  • Fundamental analysis
  • Market anomalies
  • Market efficiency
  • Technical rules

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