The assad dynasty: Quo vadis damascus? (Hafiz: 1930-2000; Bashar: Born 1965)

After its independence from France in 1946, Syria was dominated by Sunni-Muslim leaders representing the majority population and adopting a parliamentary-democratic system. But since 1949 Syria has experienced many years of instability, including several military coups. The coup in 1970 by Hafiz al-Assad imposed on Syria 50 years of autocratic rule by minority Alawite leaders: Hafiz al-Assad (1970-2000) and since 2000 his son Bashar. To gain public legitimacy and political stability both leaders introduced socioeconomic reforms and endeavored to create a non-sectarian national community. But they encountered fierce opposition and bloody rebellions by radical and conservative Sunni-Muslims. Bashar al-Assad lost control of most of Syria after the “Arab Spring” uprising in 2011. In response he killed some half a million people and turned more than 11 million Syrians into refugees. On the brink of the collapse of his regime in 2013, Bashar was helped by Shi’te military forces - notably from Iran and Hezbollah. It was Russian airpower - first employed in Syria in September 2015 - which proved absolutely essential for his survival. By 2019/2020 these forces had re-captured most of Syria for Bashar. Iran and Russia are likely to determine the fate of Bashar’s autocratic rule and the future of the Assad dynasty.