The balance of payments of oil-importing developing countries: An aggregate econometric analysis

Using annual data drawn from 1963–1983 an econometric model of the balance of payments of oil-importing less developed countries is estimated. The model consists of equations for exports, imports, export and import unit value indices, capital flows, the reserves and the exchange rate. An important feature of the model is the way in the way in which foreign exchange shortages affect imports, external borrowing and the exchange rate. A number of simulation exercises are carried out to determine the model's properties.