The Bristol Integrated Offender Management Scheme: A Pseudo-Experimental Test of Desistance Theory

Recent literature suggests certain turning points can create necessary conditions for crime desistance. The role of the criminal–justice–system partnerships as potential turning point agents has not been sufficiently researched within this framework. Recent attempts to deal with persistent criminals through integrated-offender-management programmes (IOM) have been implemented in the UK. None has been empirically evaluated. We test a cohort of prolific offenders assigned to the Bristol IOM scheme (n = 155). Using a generalized linear regression model with a Poisson distribution, we show that IOM participants have more than twice the likelihood to desist from crime. The effect of IOM appears stronger than any other predictor, including offender’s age, gender, and criminal record. However, more rigorous research is necessary to make stronger nationwide policy recommendations, preferably in carefully designed controlled experiments. We discuss the findings within the wider context of desistance theory and research.