TY - JOUR
T1 - The cycle of violence in the Second Intifada
T2 - Causality in nonlinear vector autoregressive models
AU - Asali, Muhammad
AU - Abu-Qarn, Aamer S.
AU - Beenstock, Michael
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
PY - 2017/9/1
Y1 - 2017/9/1
N2 - We contest Jaeger and Paserman's claim (Jaeger and Paserman, 2008. The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. American Economic Review 98(4): 1591–1604) that Palestinians did not react to Israeli aggression during Intifada 2. We address the differences between the two sides in terms of the timing and intensity of violence, estimate nonlinear vector autoregression models that are suitable when the linear vector autoregression innovations are not normally distributed, identify causal effects rather than Granger causality using the principle of weak exogeneity, and introduce the “kill-ratio” as a concept for testing hypotheses about the cycle of violence. The Israelis killed 1.28 Palestinians for every killed Israeli, whereas the Palestinians killed only 0.09 Israelis for every killed Palestinian.
AB - We contest Jaeger and Paserman's claim (Jaeger and Paserman, 2008. The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. American Economic Review 98(4): 1591–1604) that Palestinians did not react to Israeli aggression during Intifada 2. We address the differences between the two sides in terms of the timing and intensity of violence, estimate nonlinear vector autoregression models that are suitable when the linear vector autoregression innovations are not normally distributed, identify causal effects rather than Granger causality using the principle of weak exogeneity, and introduce the “kill-ratio” as a concept for testing hypotheses about the cycle of violence. The Israelis killed 1.28 Palestinians for every killed Israeli, whereas the Palestinians killed only 0.09 Israelis for every killed Palestinian.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85013074493&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/jae.2563
DO - 10.1002/jae.2563
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AN - SCOPUS:85013074493
SN - 0883-7252
VL - 32
SP - 1197
EP - 1205
JO - Journal of Applied Econometrics
JF - Journal of Applied Econometrics
IS - 6
ER -