The demographic dimension in conflict resolution: The case of Jerusalem

The connection between territory and population is particularly complex in light of the different patterns of demographic behavior that prevail among Jews as opposed to Arabs and others in Jerusalem. Despite a clear policy on the part of Israel to encourage Jewish demographic dominance in Jerusalem, the proportion of Jews among the total population has, in fact, shrunk since the city's reunification. Population projections, prepared at the request of the Jerusalem municipality by a demographic-social team that I coordinated, and which were based on various scenarios of demographic developments among Jews and Palestinians, suggest a continuation and even sharpening of the same tendency through the year 2020. Demographic trends thus form an important, if not the primary, element of the context in which international negotiations need to be conducted and decisions made.