The Effect of Historical Analogies on Foreign Policy Attitudes

Existing research points to the potential impact of historical analogies on domestic audiences, but it has not examined the effect of historical analogies on foreign publics. Using speeches by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, we investigated whether evoking salient events from the audience country’s past effectively increased popular support for aiding Ukraine. We conducted survey experiments simultaneously in four countries where Zelensky delivered speeches rich in historical analogies: United Kingdom (WWII), United States (Pearl Harbor and 9/11), Germany and Israel (Holocaust). Exposure to excerpts from Zelensky’s speeches triggered distinctive emotional reactions in all countries consistent with the tailored content. Only in Israel, however, where domestic assistance to Ukraine was perceived as insufficient, did exposure increase support for aiding Ukraine. Our findings suggest that the persuasive potential of historical analogies is limited.