The Future of Israeli and Jewish Demography

This article—which was written prior to the onset of the Swords of Iron War in October 2023—reviews current and expected demographic developments in the State of Israel up to 2050, together with a broad look at the Jewish Diaspora, based on assumptions which will be described in the article. The underlying theory is that the Israeli population is not a closed system but rather draws its human resources from the Jewish communities around the world and from Middle East populations. Israel in turn, is a source of human and other substantial resources for these populations. A central question the article will examine is that of the balance between Jews and Arabs within a geopolitical entity that is supposed to fulfil two conditions—that of a Jewish and a democratic state—in the space between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. Another weighty question relates to the internal balance between the various segments of the Jewish population within the Israeli state, including their degree of affinity to religion and religiosity. A third question relates to the reciprocal relations between the core Jewish-Israeli state and the Jewish Diaspora around the world in the long term. Based on data from population surveys and demographic forecasts, I will explore a number of implications, which should be at the center of any strategic assessment in the State of Israel in the coming decades.