TY - JOUR
T1 - The joint determination of morbidity and vaccination in the spatiotemporal epidemiology of COVID-19
AU - Beenstock, Michael
AU - Felsenstein, Daniel
AU - Gdaliahu, Matan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/11
Y1 - 2023/11
N2 - This paper examines the mutual dependence between COVID-19 morbidity and vaccination rollout. A theory of endogenous immunization is proposed in which the decision to become vaccinated varies directly with the risks of contagion, and the public self-selects into self-protection. Hence, COVID-19 morbidity varies inversely with vaccination rollout, and vaccination rollout varies directly with COVID-19 morbidity. The paper leverages the natural sequencing between morbidity and immunization to identify the causal order in the dynamics of this relationship. A modified SIR model is estimated using spatial econometric methods for weekly panel data for Israel at a high level of spatial granularity. Connectivity between spatial units is measured using physical proximity and a unique mobility-based measure. Spatiotemporal models for morbidity and vaccination rollout show that not only does morbidity vary inversely with vaccination rollout, vaccination rollout varies directly with morbidity. The utility of the model for public health policy targeting, is highlighted.
AB - This paper examines the mutual dependence between COVID-19 morbidity and vaccination rollout. A theory of endogenous immunization is proposed in which the decision to become vaccinated varies directly with the risks of contagion, and the public self-selects into self-protection. Hence, COVID-19 morbidity varies inversely with vaccination rollout, and vaccination rollout varies directly with COVID-19 morbidity. The paper leverages the natural sequencing between morbidity and immunization to identify the causal order in the dynamics of this relationship. A modified SIR model is estimated using spatial econometric methods for weekly panel data for Israel at a high level of spatial granularity. Connectivity between spatial units is measured using physical proximity and a unique mobility-based measure. Spatiotemporal models for morbidity and vaccination rollout show that not only does morbidity vary inversely with vaccination rollout, vaccination rollout varies directly with morbidity. The utility of the model for public health policy targeting, is highlighted.
KW - Causality
KW - Morbidity and vaccination
KW - SIRV model
KW - Spatial panel econometrics
KW - Spatial spillover
KW - Spatio-temporal epidemiology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85173974914&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.sste.2023.100621
DO - 10.1016/j.sste.2023.100621
M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???
C2 - 38042534
AN - SCOPUS:85173974914
SN - 1877-5845
VL - 47
JO - Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
JF - Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
M1 - 100621
ER -