The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Lee Mordechai; Merle Eisenberg; Timothy P. Newfield; Adam Izdebski; Janet E. Kay; Hendrik Poinar

doi:10.1073/pnas.1903797116

The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Lee Mordechai^*, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, Hendrik Poinar

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of History

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

79 Scopus citations

Abstract

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	25546-25554
Number of pages	9
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	116
Issue number	51
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116
State	Published - 17 Dec 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Princeton University’s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton’s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.’s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012–2014, 2016–2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University’s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University.

Funding Information:
We thank Princeton University?s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton?s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.?s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland?s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012?2014, 2016?2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University?s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Keywords

First plague pandemic
Justinianic Plague
Late Antiquity
Plague
Yersinia pestis

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10.1073/pnas.1903797116

Cite this

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title = "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?",

abstract = "Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.",

keywords = "First plague pandemic, Justinianic Plague, Late Antiquity, Plague, Yersinia pestis",

author = "Lee Mordechai and Merle Eisenberg and Newfield, {Timothy P.} and Adam Izdebski and Kay, {Janet E.} and Hendrik Poinar",

note = "Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Princeton University{\textquoteright}s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton{\textquoteright}s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.{\textquoteright}s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland{\textquoteright}s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012–2014, 2016–2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University{\textquoteright}s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University. Funding Information: We thank Princeton University?s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton?s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.?s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland?s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012?2014, 2016?2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University?s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.",

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doi = "10.1073/pnas.1903797116",

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N1 - Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Princeton University’s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton’s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.’s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012–2014, 2016–2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University’s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University. Funding Information: We thank Princeton University?s History Department for supporting this project; David Gyllenhaal (Princeton University), who contributed to the Syriac sources in SI Appendix, Table S1; John Haldon (Princeton University) and Neil Roberts (University of Plymouth and Oxford University) for commenting on drafts of this paper; and Bernard Palme (University of Vienna) for commenting on the papyri section. The work of L.M., M.E., T.P.N., and A.I. was supported by Princeton?s Climate Change and History Research Initiative. L.M. and M.E.?s work was also supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center funded by the National Science Foundation (DBI-1639145). T.P.N. acknowledges support from the Georgetown Environmental Initiative. A.I. recognizes funding received from the Max Planck Society and from Poland?s Ministry of Science and Higher Education (2012?2014, 2016?2019). J.E.K. recognizes support from an American Council of Learned Societies/Mellon Dissertation Fellowship. J.E.K. and M.E. acknowledge support from Princeton University?s Center for Digital Humanities. H.P. recognizes support from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant, the Canadian Research Council Program, Canadian Institute for Advances Research, and McMaster University. Publisher Copyright: © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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N2 - Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

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The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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