The logic of backward induction

Itai Arieli, Robert J. Aumann*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Call a perfect information (PI) game simple if each player moves just once. Call a player rational if he never takes an action while believing, with probability 1, that a different action would yield him a higher payoff. Using syntactic logic, we show that an outcome of a simple PI game is consistent with common strong belief of rationality iff it is a backward induction outcome. The result also applies to general PI games in which a player's agents act independently, rendering forward inferences invalid.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)443-464
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of Economic Theory
Volume159
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Sep 2015

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Elsevier Inc.

Keywords

  • Backward induction
  • Common strong belief
  • Perfect information
  • Strong belief
  • Syntactic interactive epistemology

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