The Middle East and Peaceful Change

The Middle East is often considered a war zone, and it rarely comes to mind as a region that includes cases of peaceful change. Yet several examples of peaceful change can be identified at different levels of analysis: international, regional, interactive, and domestic. This chapter first critically examines the impact of the broader global/systemic level of analysis on the prospects for peaceful change. It then moves to examine the regional level of analysis, exploring the Kurdish question and the Arab-Israeli conflict as a central axis of change, the role of the Arab League, and the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The chapter then examines the interactive, bilateral level of analysis, exploring peaceful territorial change in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, with reference to the successful Israeli-Egyptian negotiations of 1977-1979 and the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process since 1993. Next, it explores the domestic level of analysis, focusing on domestic politics, the nature of ruling coalitions, and the implications of the domestic turmoil of the Arab Spring. The last section draws conclusions from each level of analysis, with implications about the prospects for peaceful change in the region.