TY - JOUR
T1 - The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
T2 - 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
AU - Domeisen, Daniela I.V.
AU - Butler, Amy H.
AU - Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.
AU - Ayarzagüena, Blanca
AU - Baldwin, Mark P.
AU - Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne
AU - Furtado, Jason C.
AU - Garfinkel, Chaim I.
AU - Hitchcock, Peter
AU - Karpechko, Alexey Yu
AU - Kim, Hera
AU - Knight, Jeff
AU - Lang, Andrea L.
AU - Lim, Eun Pa
AU - Marshall, Andrew
AU - Roff, Greg
AU - Schwartz, Chen
AU - Simpson, Isla R.
AU - Son, Seok Woo
AU - Taguchi, Masakazu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2020/1/27
Y1 - 2020/1/27
N2 - The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.
AB - The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.
KW - S2S database
KW - stratosphere
KW - sub-seasonal predictability
KW - sudden stratospheric warming
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85078733545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2019JD030920
DO - 10.1029/2019JD030920
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AN - SCOPUS:85078733545
SN - 2169-897X
VL - 125
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
IS - 2
M1 - e2019JD030920
ER -