The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere

Daniela I.V. Domeisen*, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Mark P. Baldwin, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Jason C. Furtado, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Andrea L. Lang, Eun Pa Lim, Andrew Marshall, Greg Roff, Chen Schwartz, Isla R. Simpson, Seok Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

118 Scopus citations

Abstract

The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.

Original languageAmerican English
Article numbere2019JD030920
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume125
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 27 Jan 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Keywords

  • S2S database
  • stratosphere
  • sub-seasonal predictability
  • sudden stratospheric warming

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this