Toward Narrowing Uncertainty in Future Projections of Local Extreme Precipitation

Francesco Marra*, Moshe Armon, Ori Adam, Davide Zoccatelli, Osama Gazal, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Uri Dayan, Yehouda Enzel, Efrat Morin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

Projections of extreme precipitation based on modern climate models suffer from large uncertainties. Specifically, unresolved physics and natural variability limit the ability of climate models to provide actionable information on impacts and risks at the regional, watershed and city scales relevant for practical applications. Here, we show that the interaction of precipitating systems with local features can constrain the statistical description of extreme precipitation. These observational constraints can be used to project local extremes of low yearly exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year events) using synoptic-scale information from climate models, which is generally represented more accurately than the local scales, and without requiring climate models to explicitly resolve extremes. The novel approach, demonstrated here over the south-eastern Mediterranean, offers a path for improving the predictability of local statistics of extremes in a changing climate, independent of pending improvements in climate models at regional and local scales.

Original languageAmerican English
Article numbere2020GL091823
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume48
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - 16 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Keywords

  • climate change
  • extreme precipitation
  • global climate model projection
  • impact studies
  • south-eastern Mediterranean

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