Updating inferences about negative events: Does the direction of the update matter?

Belief updating—the revision of beliefs in light of new evidence—is central to adaptive cognition and emotion regulation yet often disrupted in emotional disorders. This study examines the overlooked process of internally driven inferential update, the capacity to move spontaneously between competing causal explanations for an event regardless of new information. We address two gaps in literature: whether benefits depend on shift direction or on shifting itself, and whether effects persist to the next day. In two studies we tested inference updating for participants’ personally meaningful negative events. On Day 1 they were assigned to one of three conditions: shifting from depressogenic-to-benign inferences, the reverse shift, or a no-shift control condition. Outcomes were assessed immediately after the manipulation and 24 h later. We tested whether change in symptoms depended on shift direction or on the mere flexibility of shifting across inferences, regardless of direction. We further tested whether trait brooding was associated with the effects of shifting. Across studies, immediate benefits—improved mood and reduced state rumination—were specific to the depressogenic-to-benign condition. On Day 2, Study 1 showed that only the depressogenic-to-benign shift increased benign inferences, whereas Study 2 found that both shift directions did so relative to the no-shift condition. Trait brooding affected emotional reactivity and next-day inferences but did not interact with condition. These findings suggest that internally driven inferential shifts are a viable form of belief updating about emotionally-laden events and highlight the clinical utility of inferential flexibility for addressing maladaptive cognitive and emotional processes.