Using machine learning methods to identify trajectories of change and predict responders and non-responders to short-term dynamic therapy

Objectives: Predicting therapy responders can significantly improve clinical outcomes. This study aims to identify predictors of response to short-term dynamic therapy. Methods: Data from 95 patients who underwent 16-session therapy were analyzed using machine learning. Weekly progress was monitored with the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ45) and Target Complaints (TC). A machine learning model identified change trajectories for responders and non-responders, with a random forest algorithm and elastic net modeling predicting trajectory group membership using pre-treatment data. Results: A weak positive relationship was found between the trajectories of the two outcome variables. The results of the different analysis methods were compared and discussed. Important predictors of OQ45 trajectories, based on random forest modeling, included initial symptom severity, difficulties in emotion regulation, coldness, avoidant attachment, conscientiousness, interpersonal problems, non-acceptance of negative emotion, neuroticism, emotional clarity, impulsivity, and emotion awareness (72.8% accuracy). Initial problem severity, self-scarifying extraversion, and non-assertiveness were the most dominant predictors for TC trajectories (62.8% accuracy). Conclusions: These findings offer data-driven insights for selecting short-term dynamic therapy. Predicting response for the OQ45, a nomothetic measure, does not extend to the TC, an idiographic measure, and vice versa, highlighting the importance of multidimensional outcome evaluations for personalized treatment.