TY - JOUR
T1 - When Deterrence Backfires
T2 - House Demolitions, Palestinian Radicalization, and Israeli Fatalities
AU - Freedman, Michael
AU - Klor, Esteban F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2022.
PY - 2023/8/1
Y1 - 2023/8/1
N2 - Conflict points around the world involve government forces fighting terrorist groups. In this type of warfare, there is a danger that counterterrorist efforts may backfire, providing ammunition for additional cycles of violence. We study this issue focusing on selective and indiscriminate house demolitions employed by Israel during the Second Intifada. We exploit the temporal and spatial variation of this policy to assess its impact on Palestinians’ political views. We find that the civilian population does not react to punitive house demolitions, a selective form of counterterrorism. On the contrary, Palestinians are more likely to adopt more radical political opinions in response to precautionary house demolitions, an indiscriminate form of counterterrorism. We also show that political radicalization induced by indiscriminate counterterrorism leads to an increase in future terror attacks. Overall, our analysis provides explicit empirical support to the mechanism behind the positive correlation between indiscriminate counterterrorism and future levels of violence.
AB - Conflict points around the world involve government forces fighting terrorist groups. In this type of warfare, there is a danger that counterterrorist efforts may backfire, providing ammunition for additional cycles of violence. We study this issue focusing on selective and indiscriminate house demolitions employed by Israel during the Second Intifada. We exploit the temporal and spatial variation of this policy to assess its impact on Palestinians’ political views. We find that the civilian population does not react to punitive house demolitions, a selective form of counterterrorism. On the contrary, Palestinians are more likely to adopt more radical political opinions in response to precautionary house demolitions, an indiscriminate form of counterterrorism. We also show that political radicalization induced by indiscriminate counterterrorism leads to an increase in future terror attacks. Overall, our analysis provides explicit empirical support to the mechanism behind the positive correlation between indiscriminate counterterrorism and future levels of violence.
KW - counterterrorism
KW - house demolitions
KW - political radicalization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85142253390&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/00220027221139432
DO - 10.1177/00220027221139432
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AN - SCOPUS:85142253390
SN - 0022-0027
VL - 67
SP - 1592
EP - 1617
JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution
JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution
IS - 7-8
ER -