When do base rates affect predictions?

Maya Bar-Hillel*, Baruch Fischhoff

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

77 Scopus citations

Abstract

M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their study emerges as a constructive replication of earlier results demonstrating judgment by representativeness. (15 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)671-680
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Personality and Social Psychology
Volume41
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1981
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • base rates, predictions, critique of study by M. Manis et al

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