WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Baruch Meerson*, Pavel V. Sasorov

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

27 Scopus citations


Stochastic effects may cause "fade-out" of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We evaluate the epidemic fade-out probability by a WKB method and find that the most probable path to extinction of the disease comes from an instantonlike orbit in the phase space of an underlying Hamiltonian flow.

Original languageAmerican English
Article number041130
JournalPhysical Review E
Issue number4
StatePublished - 27 Oct 2009


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