WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Baruch Meerson; Pavel V. Sasorov

doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.041130

WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Baruch Meerson^*
, Pavel V. Sasorov

^*Corresponding author for this work

Racah Institute of Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

28 Scopus citations

Abstract

Stochastic effects may cause "fade-out" of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We evaluate the epidemic fade-out probability by a WKB method and find that the most probable path to extinction of the disease comes from an instantonlike orbit in the phase space of an underlying Hamiltonian flow.

Original language	English
Article number	041130
Journal	Physical Review E
Volume	80
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.041130
State	Published - 27 Oct 2009

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10.1103/PhysRevE.80.041130

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WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Abstract

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